We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response to a slowdown in the economy. Other major central banks will remain a long way behind in their tightening cycles. The Bank of England may raise interest rates a little faster than anticipated by financial markets next year, provided a “no deal” Brexit doesn’t put a spanner in the works. But the ECB will only begin to raise rates in late 2019, and policy tightening in Japan is not yet in sight.
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