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Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less than typically assumed and felt more in 2026 than next year. And while geopolitics is likely to dominate headlines, the economic effects will be felt over years rather than within 2025 itself.

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