Manufacturing PMIs (July)

The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid growth in industry over the past few quarters looks unlikely to be repeated.  
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy

There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and a cut by Bangko Sentral Philipinas (BSP).

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We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

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Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (July)

July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is unlikely.    

2 August 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional)

Taiwan’s economy only contracted slightly last quarter despite a major COVID outbreak, as strong exports cushioned the blow. Large backlogs of orders should keep exports elevated which, alongside a recovery in private consumption, will set the scene for a rebound in output over the second half of 2021.  

30 July 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Virus now hitting industry in Malaysia and Vietnam

Industry in Malaysia and Vietnam was already feeling a pinch from restrictions and worker shortages brought about by a jump in COVID-19 cases, but the situation is deteriorating fast. Data early next week, including Korean trade figures for July and the manufacturing PMIs, should give us some indication of the extent of disruption. Any major hit to output would be felt further afield, with both countries key links in semiconductor and electronics supply chains.
 

30 July 2021
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