The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events. How much of a threat does more disruptive weather pose to the global economy? Does this mean more upside risks to commodities prices – and to the inflation outlook?
For this special briefing about El Niño’s return and what this means for economies and markets, David Oxley, our Climate Economics head, was joined by Senior EM Economist Gareth Leather and Commodities Economist Bill Weatherburn.
During this 20-minute session, the team answered client questions as they addressed key issues, including:
- Which parts of the global economy are most vulnerable;
- How commodities markets are positioned for El Niño’s extreme weather;
- How inflation dynamics will play out under various El Niño scenarios.