Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3% for the remainder of this year, with only a modest drop back next year. We anticipate that real GDP growth will be a below-consensus 6.0% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. (Pages 3 & 4.)
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