US Commercial Property
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Commercial Property Lending (Feb.)

After a stronger than expected increase in January, commercial real estate debt fell back in February. This suggests that last month’s gain was a one-off and not the start of a rapid acceleration. Instead, we think that commercial debt will increase gradually, as the recovery from the pandemic supports investment activity.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Dec.)

Commercial real estate debt ended 2021 with its largest monthly increase since the onset of the pandemic. Against a backdrop of strong investment activity, we expect commercial property lending to have a strong start to 2022.

17 January 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Comparing office occupancy changes across US metros

Combining the change in leased space with the rise in sublease availability gives a more complete picture of the change in demand across office metros since the onset of the pandemic. This gives a more intuitive match between demand patterns and rental trends that we have seen so far. This Update forms part of a set of publications that extend our existing office and apartment market analysis beyond the six major metros that we currently forecast. Over the coming weeks, we will be expanding our coverage to include an additional 11 US metros in our regular quarterly analysis and forecasts. That will include the release of a new metro focused Chartbook and enlarged office and apartment metro Outlooks.

11 January 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Key calls for US commercial real estate in 2022

The US economy is set to slow this year as elevated inflation and higher interest rates squeeze spending. Nevertheless, at the all-property level, we expect rental growth of around 3% y/y and NOI yields to see another large fall, driving double-digit total returns. Industrial will again be at the top of the table, with returns reaching 20%, but the three other major sectors should all see returns of close to 10%. We also expect another year of outperformance for the cheaper Sunbelt markets.

6 January 2022

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US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021
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