Where is all the stock?

Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of transactions inevitably mean that listings are higher than usual, but they are being outstripped by even stronger demand as large numbers of first-time buyers look for homes.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Chart Book

London transactions outperform, but not prices

The jump in transactions during the pandemic was larger in London than other regions as the market didn’t experience the same drop in supply as elsewhere. That reflected many existing homeowners adjusting to remote working by moving further afield, giving an opportunity for first-time buyers to get on the London housing ladder. More plentiful supply has also caused house price growth in the capital to underperform the national average since the start of the pandemic. While house prices rose by 16% between Q4 2019 and November 2021 nationally, the average increase in London was 9%. Outer London boroughs tended to outperform more central areas, but Hammersmith & Fulham, Kensington & Chelsea, and Islington were striking exceptions.

25 January 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.)

The number of homes being listed for sale dropped again in December while demand continued to climb. As a result, we think house prices will continue to rise at pace in the near term.

20 January 2022

UK Housing Market Update

The anatomy of the pandemic price boom

A breakdown of house price growth over the past two years confirms that remote working has altered the nation’s housing needs. But what households can afford, rather than what they desire, will be a more important driver of house prices over the next few years.

19 January 2022

More from Andrew Wishart

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Little sign of momentum in prices abating

The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove reported that the average time to sell a home continued to drop in October. That’s consistent with strong competition between buyers bidding up prices further in the near term, although in London these pressures appear to be weaker.

19 November 2021

UK Housing Market Update

Increase in mortgage rates to be limited

Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations will be fully passed through to mortgage rates. But as we think the forthcoming rise in interest rates is already priced in, we are not expecting mortgage rates to jump much higher.

12 November 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.)

Rather than representing a “rush before mortgage rates rise”, we suspect that the rise in new buyer interest in October will prove durable. With inventory very limited, that points to house prices rising by more than most other forecasters expect in 2022.

11 November 2021
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