UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2026) July’s RICS survey shows that the near-term housing outlook remains weak and the risks to our forecast that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 are still skewed to the downside. But... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Reintroducing Help to Buy wouldn’t solve housing’s problem While a new Help to Buy scheme would stimulate homebuilding in the near term, it’s not a sustainable solution to low housing supply. The government would be better off easing some of the structural... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2026) The modest rebound in buyer sentiment in June chimes with other evidence that suggests a turnaround in the housing market is underway and the downside risks to our forecast for house prices to rise by... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Council house building unlikely to be as big as Burnham promises Andy Burnham’s plans to deliver a big increase in council house building to post-Second World War levels will be expensive and would almost certainly require a chunky rise in public borrowing. The... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2026) While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks to our forecast for... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What would a new PM mean for the housing market? None of the three leading candidates to replace Starmer as Prime Minister advocate an increase in total housing supply, not least due to the fiscal constraints. But Rayner and Burnham may be more... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2026) The recent plunge in buyer sentiment triggered by the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran appeared to stabilise in April. Even so, April’s RICS survey continues to suggest that the... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Residential assets have a bright future Tight supply means residential assets will see the strongest rental growth of all sectors over the next few years. And, with the costs of maintaining a home rising, house price expectations subdued... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Big falls in nominal house prices unlikely, even in adverse scenario Despite its recent resilience, house price growth will probably slow over the coming months as the drag from higher mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to grow. But big outright falls... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Multifamily build-to-rent supply to recover from 2028 High financing and construction costs, combined with significant delays from the Building Safety Act, meant multifamily build-to-rent completions saw a 28% y/y decline in 2025. A thin pipeline... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upside risks to our forecast for household bank deposits to ease Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update One-year rent freeze could lead to higher rents further ahead While a one-year rent freeze would temporarily suppress rents for households currently in rental contracts, a further squeeze of landlords’ possible returns risks exacerbating the already tight supply... 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How far will the Iran war push up UK homebuilding costs? A renewed rise in homebuilding construction costs due to the jump in energy prices since the start of the Iran war will only further constrain homebuilders’ profits and housing starts. This poses some... 27th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What does the Iran war mean for UK loan arrears? While higher unemployment and mortgage rates due to the Iran war suggest the share of loans in arrears will rise over the next few years, even in an adverse scenario it will remain low relative to... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar. 2026) After a steady start to the year for the housing market, March’s RICS housing market survey suggests that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war is continuing to take an... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
