UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the Government’s housing reforms? The Prime Minister last week announced a trio of policies aimed at reversing the decline in home ownership since the financial crisis. We doubt the schemes will make a big difference, although more... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the house price consensus still so bullish? The consensus among professional forecasters is that house price growth will slow but remain positive over the coming years, as a robust jobs market prevents forced sales. But even in the absence of... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth approaching a peak Record high rental growth at the start of the year is likely to mark a peak given signs that tenant demand is starting to ease. But strong wage growth and the rising cost of buying as mortgage rates... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices will fall in 2023 and 2024 Our new, higher, interest rate forecasts mean that we now expect house prices to fall marginally in 2023 and 2024. While there are risks on both sides, our base case is that prices drop by 5% overall... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Builders cautious despite strong demand Despite facing very strong demand housebuilders appear reluctant to commit to new sites. This is because a shortage of materials is delaying completions, while rising interest rates and the end of the... 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Valuations are most stretched in southern regions Despite strong house price growth across the country over the past two years, including in regions that had lagged behind, valuations are most stretched in the usual places. As a result, house prices... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Benefits of buying over renting wane While buying a home is likely to remain a better option than renting, despite rising mortgage rates, the decision will become more finely balanced. That will mean some prospective first-time buyers... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates will continue to rise Mortgage rates have been slow to respond to rising market interest rates, with lenders choosing to take a hit to their margins rather than fully offset increased funding costs. But we don’t think... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Drop in sentiment suggests prices will lose some steam The sharp downturn in consumer confidence in February showed that the cost of living crisis was starting to bite even before the war in Ukraine began. But despite the worrying correlation between... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The impact of the invasion of Ukraine on UK property Much has been made of UK property’s openness to Russian money following the invasion of Ukraine. But since the depreciation of the Russian ruble in 2014, Russians have become far less important to... 25th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates will leave homes overvalued Our new, higher interest rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will climb to an eight-year high in 2023, making house prices look expensive by historical standards. But the overvaluation won’t be... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth on the launchpad We already expected that rental growth would surge to a decade-high this year. But the strength of leading indicators and the low level of rents relative to income by historical standards suggest... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The anatomy of the pandemic price boom A breakdown of house price growth over the past two years confirms that remote working has altered the nation’s housing needs. But what households can afford, rather than what they desire, will be a... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Which assets can provide the best inflation protection? Recent data have reinforced concerns about inflation risks in the UK. We remain of the view that property investments provide only limited long-term protection against higher prices, but of the... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK house price growth set for a year of two halves Strong demand will ensure that house prices maintain their momentum in the first half of the year. But rising mortgage rates will weigh on demand further out, causing prices to cool. 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
