UK Housing Market Update Will pent-up evictions weaken rents? Part of the eviction ban is due to end in September, and court ordered evictions are likely to surge as the backlog works through the system. Even so, evictions will remain small compared to the... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can planning changes boost housebuilding? Private housebuilding is constrained by the speed at which builders can sell homes at prevailing market prices, which planning changes will do little to change. As a result, the government’s proposed... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty cut brightens the outlook for house prices The latest stamp duty cut will bring forward some housing demand and, by increasing perceptions that the government is standing behind the market, the cut reduces the chance of a house price crash... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How will the high LTV withdrawal hit lending? The recent withdrawal of high LTV products could impede as many as one in four prospective first-time buyers. More broadly, tighter credit conditions reinforce our view that, despite signs of a surge... 26th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Transactions recovery to beat expectations Transactions in April and May have surprised on the upside. What’s more, there are signs that new demand in June has been stronger than expected. Of course, the economic damage from lockdown suggests... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental market isn’t out of the woods The rental market data have been surprisingly resilient. But informal rent cuts may be happening under the radar, while government support has delayed the crunch point for households. As a result, we... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holiday extension cuts chance of crash The extended mortgage holiday scheme will cushion the blow for financially distressed households. Alongside the other financial support already available, it further reduces the chance of an immediate... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The housing market won’t thaw overnight The ban on home buying activity has been lifted by the government. But a weakened economy, uncertainty and behavioural shifts from the coronavirus will hamper the housing market recovery. By the end... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can lockdown house price data be trusted? Low transactions volumes have made house price indices volatile and inaccurate. Indeed, the ONS has suspended publication of the official UK House Price Index, while the Halifax and Nationwide data... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holidays surge to two million The data now point to two million households with mortgage holidays. This suggests that the peak in arrears may be much higher than during the GFC. But, with mortgage credit quality and banks’... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Do funding spreads signal a credit crunch? A rising LIBOR OIS spread points to nervousness on interbank funding markets. But for the mortgage market, any future credit crunch is more likely to come from lenders’ concerns about the economy... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What does the housebuilder share slump tell us? The slump in housebuilder share prices reflects the coming collapse in housing sales, which will force builders to shut down production for several months. Indeed, we now expect housing starts to drop... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing market placed on ice In light of government advice to delay housing sales, we now expect a 70% q/q fall in house purchase mortgage approvals and transactions in Q2. Meanwhile, our base case is that low interest rates... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
