UK Housing Market Update New starts likely to remain weak as transactions slump Completions of new homes have made a full recovery from their collapse in Q2 2020, but builders appear more hesitant to start new projects. Given we expect the housing market to endure a rough patch... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Some drop in the London rent premium to be sustained The latest lockdown will keep rental demand in London very weak and prolong the drop in rents there. There is no doubt that they will recover in the summer if vaccines are successful and the virus... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Two examples of what leasehold reform could mean Government reform of leasehold will reduce payments from leaseholders to freehold landlords a lot in some instances. In this Update, we provide two examples of how the changes will affect... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2021 likely to see house price surge reversed The government’s plan to end the furlough scheme and the stamp duty holiday in the spring sets the housing market up for a hangover from the surge in prices in 2020. As a result, we are more downbeat... 5th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update FPC hints that it will loosen lending rules Given a tightening in credit conditions, the Financial Policy Committee is probably right to be unconcerned by the recent surge in mortgage lending. In fact, the Committee is preparing to loosen its... 14th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty holiday turning out to be a mistake With the benefit of hindsight, the stamp duty holiday was not necessary to get the housing market moving again. And the end of the holiday in March will insert a cliff edge in demand at the exact... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Strong housing markets give recoveries a helping hand A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can the housing market continue to shrug off job losses? History suggests that large falls in employment can lead to big falls in house prices. The furlough scheme, mortgage holidays, and a moratorium on possessions have insulated the housing market from... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could cladding issues weigh on the housing market? Cladding issues are a downside risk to our already weak housing transactions forecasts for next year. If there continues to be severe testing delays and no change in policy, transactions could end up... 9th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Second wave may pull house prices back down The second lockdown will have a smaller immediate impact than the first as the housing market is allowed to remain open this time. But it will also put the economic recovery into reverse and push the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Employment revisions highlight rental market risks The big downward revision to employment in the labour market statistics reveals that renters have seen a larger hit to employment than homeowners. This supports our view that house prices will be... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is pent-up housing demand running out? There are tentative signs that the housing market mini-boom is running out of steam. We think house price growth and transactions are probably close to their peak. As pent-up demand from lockdown is... 2nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising interest rates don’t signal a credit crunch We don’t think the surge in high-LTV interest rates signals an incoming credit crunch. Rather, it probably reflects lenders prioritising demand from less risky borrowers. As the surge from pent-up... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the V shaped recovery last? The housing market recovery has exceeded all expectations and we have substantially upgraded our 2020 house price forecast. But as pent up demand runs out, a weak economy, tight credit conditions and... 4th September 2020 · 3 mins read
