UK Housing Market Update Are London new home prices really outperforming? An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update When will standard variable rates rise? Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London continue to struggle? Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would cutting HTB hit first-time buyers? An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are homes being built in the right places? There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is owner occupation at an inflection point? The rise in owner occupation recorded in the English Housing Survey is probably more than just noise. And with a revival in buy-to-let unlikely, that trend looks set to persist, suggesting that owner... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could leasehold reforms raise house prices? Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Remortgaging set to peak in 2019 After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing slowdown to persist in 2019 2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London rental growth at an inflection point Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing market There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Weak outlook for housing supply Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No sign of easing in deposit constraints The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The HTB extension will not give housebuilding a lift The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lender caution set to persist Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
