UK Housing Market Update Mortgage interest rates close to their floor Increased competition among lenders has caused mortgage interest rates to fall in recent months. But funding costs are set to remain pretty stable. That, combined with already tight interest margins... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Would a stamp duty cut boost transactions? Stamp duty changes previously hinted at by the Prime Minister could affect over half of all home buyers, with more expensive homes seeing substantial savings. While the effect on house prices would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Has the Halifax index been fixed? After spending much of the last year as an outlier, IHS Markit has fixed the Halifax index. In line with the other main measures, the index is now recording sluggish house price growth. And with the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is private Right to Buy a good idea? Labour’s proposed Right to Buy scheme for private tenants could have severe unintended consequences. The supply of property available to rent would fall, pushing up rents across the board. Moreover... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A stealthy improvement in valuations Accelerating wage growth has lowered the house price to earnings ratio, even as house prices themselves have continued to climb. Indeed, London has already seen an 11% drop in earnings-adjusted prices... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is owning still better than renting? The era of sustained, rapid house price growth appears to be over. But even so, the cost of owning a home is still favourable compared to renting and is likely to stay that way. That suggests that... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A surge in London rents is coming London’s rental market is shifting to a new phase of adjustment. Low returns and tax changes are driving landlords from the market, while rising wages and low unemployment are supporting tenant demand... 13th August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Are more young adults moving out? Data from the English Housing Survey suggests that rising tenant demand has come from newly formed households. That could reflect more young adults moving out of their parents’ homes, and supports our... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the fall in transactions be sustained? Transactions fell sharply in June, but leading indicators suggest that the decline probably won’t be sustained. Indeed, assuming a no deal Brexit is avoided, we think housing transactions will fall by... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Weak PMIs don’t herald housebuilding slump The construction PMI fell sharply in June, but we doubt that housing starts will see a comparable decline. However, with Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we do expect a small fall in housebuilding... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could HTB be renewed once more? Despite its flaws, Help-to-Buy has been effective in supporting housing construction. As a result, when the time comes, the government may have little choice but to renew the scheme again. 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in interest margins overstated? Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Labour’s policy proposals make a difference? Recent housing proposals from Labour, if enacted, could have major consequences for the housing market. On the plus side, abolishing stamp duty could help to unclog housing transactions. But proposals... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London LTI correction still to come Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will ending PDRs be bad news for housing supply? Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions see a Brexit bounce in 2019? Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
