UK Housing Market Update Would a no deal Brexit trigger a fall in house prices? A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Softening demand to hit housebuilding Despite support from Help-to-Buy, newbuild demand appears to have slumped during 2018. In response, some builders will need to cut prices to clear unsold inventory – stalling newbuild house price... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Tracking the landlord sell-off Our analysis of the BTL lending data suggests that, over the last year, the sell-off among landlords has persisted. And given the further reduction in mortgage interest tax relief that is on the way... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s price slump spreading? The weakness in London’s housing market has been accompanied by a rise in months of unsold stock. Something similar appears to be happening in the South East and we have trimmed our forecasts as a... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rising rates will keep housing in the doldrums The vast majority of existing mortgage borrowers should be well placed to deal with the latest rise in Bank Rate. But a rising cost of borrowing will further constrain demand from new buyers, ensuring... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Landlord sell-off driving fall in instructions The end of the BTL boom has contributed to reduced liquidity in the rental market, making it harder for tenants to find a home. With no sign of a BTL revival in sight, we suspect the current slowdown... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Market slowdown reaches housebuilders The housing market slowdown has finally caught up with housebuilders – with both transactions and house prices in the newbuild sector feeling the pinch. As a result, we expect the current stagnation... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Hard evidence of a landlord sell-off Landlords are trimming their portfolios, reducing the number of privately rented homes in the dwelling stock for the first time in 18 years. For now, there are few signs that these additional sellers... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions fall further? Transactions fell sharply in March. But that was probably down to a combination of weak activity from the end of last year, as well as the recent bout of extreme weather. As a result, we think the... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates are still on an upward path The MPC held off from raising Bank Rate in May, suggesting that the next rise in mortgage rates may also have been deferred. But interest rates remain on an upward trajectory, suggesting that today’s... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could housebuilders be doing more? The gap between the number of homes granted planning permission and actual housing starts is growing. But it is labour and materials shortages, as well as a deteriorating housing market backdrop, that... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage rates spike when the TFS ends? The Term Funding Scheme did little to lower mortgage pricing, and its withdrawal could pass with little discernible effect. But by boosting lenders’ marginal funding costs, the end of the TFS does... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why has the rate rise not been fully passed on? November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has rental growth in London reached a floor? Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the newbuild premium rising? The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has the official HPI been fixed? Recent changes to the official HPI are a step in the right direction. But the reliability of the provisional estimates of the index, particularly the newbuild component, still leave something to be... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
