UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Jul. 2024) 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks to interest rates have increased We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%... 31st July 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025 House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered... 22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) The unexpectedly large fall in retail sales in June reversed the jump in May, and suggests that rising real incomes and improving sentiment have so far failed to translate into a significant increase... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024) Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2024) Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices to slip back in the near term The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2024) The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
Labour could meet housebuilding targets without breaking fiscal rules, Capital argues Capital says that a line in Labour’s manifesto promising to “ensure that for specific types of development schemes, landowners are awarded fair compensation rather than inflated prices based on the... 14th June 2024 · Financial Times
UK house prices set to stagnate in 2024 Capital Economics downgrades forecast to only a 0.5 per cent rise as agents bemoan high mortgage interest rates. 14th June 2024 · The Times
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024) Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
