Nationwide House Prices (Sep.)

The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house price growth will cool gradually rather than collapse.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
Continue reading

More from UK Housing

UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Nov.)

House prices recorded another above-consensus gain in November as strong buyer demand bid prices up further. There is little sign of that dynamic changing anytime soon, so we expect the consensus forecast for 2022 to continue to be revised up closer to our own view.

1 December 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (Oct.)

Mortgage approvals remained robust in October after the end of the stamp duty holiday, only easing back into line with their pre-pandemic average. With demand strong, we suspect that mortgage approvals will move back above pre-virus levels in 2022, although limited inventory could be a constraint.

29 November 2021

UK Housing Market Update

300,000 supply target remains out of reach

The most comprehensive statistics on housing supply confirmed that the pause in construction in Q2 2020 caused completions of new homes to drop back. Housebuilding activity has since recovered but materials shortages, the end of the Help to Buy Equity Loan scheme, and a cooling market suggest that the high water mark for new housing supply has already been and gone.

29 November 2021

More from Andrew Wishart

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (Aug.)

While still above pre-COVID-19 levels mortgage approvals edged down in August, suggesting no great rush to move before the stamp duty holiday taper ends at the end of September. But an increase in the size of mortgages approved indicates that the end of the tax break may only be a small drag on demand.

29 September 2021

UK Housing Market Update

Can large deposits continue to support house prices?

A jump in deposit sizes has been a key driver of the rise in house prices over the past 18 months. While saving is now dropping back, households have built up a large stock of cash assets which will prevent a rapid reversal in deposit size. While not providing any additional boost to house prices, that will help support them at their current level.

27 September 2021

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Prices to continue rising as stamp duty holiday elapses

There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold their ground in Q4 when stamp duty returns to normal. Moreover, with elevated household saving still supporting deposits, mortgage rates falling as competition between banks intensifies, and many households reassessing their homes in light of remote working we suspect demand will continue to surprise to the upside. Indeed, web search activity increased in September suggesting that the inevitable dip in transactions in Q4 will be short-lived. As a result, we expect house prices to rise by 10% y/y in Q4 2021 and by 5% in Q4 2022, above the consensus of 6% and 3.5% respectively.

21 September 2021
↑ Back to top