Global Steel Production (Aug.)

Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear likely.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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Precious Metals Update

Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.

7 October 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Nickel market set to remain oversupplied

We believe that current high nickel prices will prove short lived, and expect weaker economic growth in China and the tapering of US monetary policy support to depress demand for nickel and pull down its price by the end of the year.

28 September 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Aug.)

August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that any fall in supply will be compensated by weaker demand, causing prices to fall by end-2021.

20 September 2021

More from Caroline Bain

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There were hefty falls in both crude and petroleum product stocks, reflecting closed production capacity due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. Implied gasoline demand also dropped back but it is impossible to know whether that reflected soft underlying demand or a lack of product owing to refinery closures.

15 September 2021

Commodities Weekly Wrap

More of the same

Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which have soared on the back of surging power demand and constrained supply. In contrast, oil has continued to hover around $70 per barrel, as concerns about demand prevent price gains and as OPEC+ supply restraint acts as a floor under prices. We think next week could be a bit directionless again. China is set to publish its monthly activity and spending data on Wednesday, which we expect to show further weakness. So far, commodity prices have been surprisingly sanguine about the economic downturn in China. But there are now clear signs that growth in the US and UK economies is also slowing, which underpins our view that most commodity prices will be falling as we move into 2022. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There was a small draw in crude stocks last week, despite a dramatic drop in refinery utilisation as many refineries closed ahead of the Hurricane Ida. Notwithstanding, US gasoline demand remained strong, but we suspect that any boost to prices will be offset by softer Asian demand.

9 September 2021
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