My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Freeport outage fuels already heightened supply fears

The closure of the Freeport LNG facility in the US, for up to six months, adds to concerns about Europe’s ability to fill its gas storage tanks ahead of winter. We always suspected that supply concerns would re-emerge this year and, as a result, we continue to forecast prices at around €120 per MWh at end-2022.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
Continue reading

More from Energy

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Update

China’s import demand to remain subdued

Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that high prices and slower export growth will mean that commodity import volumes will remain constrained this year.

9 June 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks rose this week owing to an unusually large release from the strategic reserve and a slump in crude exports. Interestingly, implied product demand ticked up, after being relatively subdued for a few weeks prior. But we suspect that it will ease back again owing to high prevailing prices.

8 June 2022

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)

After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this year. That said, supply in the world ex China will remain constrained, even assuming higher exports from China.

20 May 2022
↑ Back to top