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Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Although Russian headline inflation came in at a slightly-weaker-than expected 6.5% y/y, that masked a worryingly strong rise in core inflation that’s likely to trigger further monetary tightening. We still expect another 75bp of hikes in the policy rate (to 7.25%) over the coming months.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Governments collapse, Russia set to default

Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability also puts EU fund inflows and the ability to secure gas supplies at risk. Elsewhere, a 30-day grace period for Russia’s government to make interest payments on Eurobonds ends on Sunday. While Russia has signalled that it is willing to make the payments in rubles, this would be a breach of the contract and could mark Russia’s first default on foreign currency debt since the Bolshevik revolution.

24 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT: knock knock, anybody there?

High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00% today. Disorderly falls in the lira are a major risk, which would probably be met with capital controls rather than rate hikes.

23 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation broadening out

Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad range of goods and services. Monetary tightening cycles are likely to continue with interest rates rising to 8% or so over the next few months and we think that rates will remain above neutral for several years. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

20 June 2022

More from William Jackson

Africa Economic Outlook

Lagging behind

Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists and falls in commodity prices means that economic recoveries will lag behind those in other parts of the world. GDP across most of the region is likely to stay well below its pre-crisis path over 2021-23.

5 August 2021

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build

The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be raised to 7.50% by year-end (previously 6.50%).

5 August 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)

The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in June suggests that industry made a negative contribution to q/q GDP growth over Q2 as a whole. But with virus cases having fallen sharply, it looks like the prospects for industry – and the economy more generally – are brightening.

3 August 2021
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