Weaker growth is here to stay

With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of 6.0% over the past 10 years. Our forecasts are much lower than those of both the consensus and the IMF.
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Recent rate hikes not the start of a trend

Attention over the past week has been on the region’s more hawkish central banks, following rate hikes in Korea and Pakistan. Both countries, along with Sri Lanka (which unexpectedly left rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday) are likely to raise interest rates further over the coming months. But these countries are very much the exception. For the rest of the region, we think interest rates will remain on hold as central banks look to keep monetary policy loose to support recoveries. Meanwhile, virus cases are rising again in Vietnam. While restrictions have been tightened, they have so far been fairly light touch, including a closure of bars and nightclubs and capacity limits on restaurants in some southern provinces. Nevertheless, the jump in cases will be watched closely by global carmakers, which were hit hard by the disruption from previous factory closures.   Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to hike at least three more times in 2022

Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year.

25 November 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised)

Revised Q3 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought last quarter, and while containment measures mean the recovery is unlikely to have gained much momentum so far this quarter, a gradual reopening should see growth accelerate in the coming months.

24 November 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

Japan Data Response

External Trade (May)

The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely rebound in import volumes means that net trade should turn into a drag on GDP growth in Q2.

19 June 2019

Emerging Asia Economics Update

What would US rate cuts mean for Asia?

Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war will cause investors to become more risk averse, Asian currencies are likely to come under renewed downward pressure. The prospect of further falls in the rupiah is the key reason why we don’t think Bank Indonesia will follow other central banks in the region in cutting interest rates this year.

18 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.)

The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year.

17 June 2019
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