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Growth to slow in the second half of the year

GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This follows the scrapping of most of the remaining COVID-19 restrictions at the start of the quarter. We expect this trend to be mirrored across the rest of the region as more countries publish GDP figures over the coming weeks. However, with headwinds mounting, we expect growth to slow in the second half of the year and remain weak throughout 2023. Regional exports appear to have plateaued since the start of 2022 and are likely to drop back in the second half of the year as global economic growth slows. Meanwhile, elevated commodity prices and higher interest rates will weigh on consumption spending. One key exception to this trend of slowing growth is Thailand, which should benefit from a steady return of international tourists in the second half of the year. Asia Drop-In (09:00AM BST/16:00PM SGT, 28th July): Join our 20-minute briefing discussing what’s in store for Asian exporters, as well as their expectations for activity, inflation and policymaking this year and beyond. Register now.  

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