A property tax could make up for fewer land sales

Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than offset with a modest property tax.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
Continue reading

More from China

China Economics Weekly

Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone

The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing is likely to signal that policy is turning more supportive. But loosening will be measured, and growth over coming quarters will still slow.

3 December 2021

China Data Response

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the surveys still suggest that industrial output rebounded in November as power shortages abated. And they also point to easing factory-gate price pressures. Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

China Data Response

China Official PMIs (Nov.)

The official PMIs suggest that industrial activity rebounded this month thanks to easing disruptions from power shortages while a renewed virus flare-up held back the recovery in services. And while we know little about its transmissibility and severity, the new Omicron variant could hold back a further economic recovery. On a more positive note, the surveys point to easing price pressures.

30 November 2021

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Economics Weekly

Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure

Early data suggest that recent electricity rationing may be the result of power companies being unable to keep up with the strength of demand, rather than a substantial pullback in electricity supply. If so, then sharp falls in output across the whole of industry have probably been avoided. But the energy-intensive sectors that have been the focus of power restrictions are clearly under pressure.

1 October 2021

China Chart Book

Power shortages another blow to global supply chains

We still don’t have enough data to judge the extent of the disruption to China’s factory output from power rationing with much certainty. But with supply chains already stretched, even a modest hit to output, which producers downstream might normally cover by dipping into inventories, could affect firms’ ability to meet orders. It’s therefore concerning that the number of ships idling outside Chinese ports has jumped again in recent weeks. The initial catalyst for the spike was short-lived disruption to port operations from Typhoon Chanthu which hit China’s east coast on 12th But port congestion remaining very elevated more than two weeks later may be a sign that power rationing along the supply chain is interfering with ports’ ability to ship orders. Disruption is likely to worsen in the short-run given that the current shortage of thermal coal needed to meet power demand won’t be resolved overnight.

30 September 2021

China Data Response

China PMIs (Sep.)

The manufacturing PMIs diverged this month. But the big picture is that industry was coming off the boil even prior to the latest power shortages. On a more upbeat note, the official surveys point to a sharp rebound in services activity, which is probably enough to ensure that overall economic output picked up this month, partially reversing a sharp decline in August.

30 September 2021
↑ Back to top