South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI bounced back last month following a sharp drop in activity in July on the back of violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. But persistent headwinds will probably continue to hold back the recovery over the coming months.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Africa

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary policy gradually. By contrast, investors currently appear to expect a relatively aggressive tightening cycle.

20 October 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict

Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that key officials backing the existing currency arrangements are also shifting tack. In South Africa, ongoing industrial action in the steel industry will probably dampen manufacturing output in Q4, in another hit to the recovery in the sector and the wider economy. Finally, escalating tensions in Ethiopia raise the spectre of more severe strains in the balance of payments.

15 October 2021

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery.

15 October 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Weekly

Rising political risks in Ethiopia, SA GDP revision’s pros?

An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing and a messy sovereign default is a real risk. And in South Africa, this week’s GDP revisions may have lowered the government debt-to-GDP ratio, but the outlook for the public finances has not improved.

27 August 2021

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q2)

The pick-up in Nigeria’s headline GDP growth to 5.0% y/y in Q2 was largely reflective of favourable base effects created by the sharp downturn a year ago. It appears that the underlying pace of growth actually slowed in Q2 and we think that the recovery will continue to disappoint over the next few years.

26 August 2021

Africa Economics Update

South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes

Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the government debt-to-GDP ratio may now be lower, underlying debt dynamics are still a major concern.

25 August 2021
↑ Back to top