US Rapid Response

US Election

The presidential election remains too close to call, but Donald Trump does appear to be edging ahead in some of the key swing states. At close to 11.30pm ET, the NYT gives Trump an 91% chance of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What risk does election pose to Treasuries?

Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the...

5th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Services Index (Oct.)

The further rise in the ISM services index to a two-year high in October suggests the services sector is continuing to soar, contrasting with the recent weakness in manufacturing. The strong rebound...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October.

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Are investors braced for too much post-election volatility?

Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Where will interest rates trough and why?

We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings

October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut

While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Harris versus Trump: Closing thoughts

Although the betting markets are still convinced that Donald Trump will win next week’s presidential election, the polls remain much closer – and within the margin of error.

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2024)

The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 15-month low in October suggests that the sector continued to struggle as hurricanes and the ongoing strike at Boeing disrupted manufacturing activity...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Report (Oct.)

The near-complete flatline in payrolls in October was only partly due to disruptions caused by hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Given positive data elsewhere this week, we believe the Fed will look...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Fed Watch

25bp will be the new normal

With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s...

31st October 2024 · 8 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS survey suggests market has bottomed

The Q3 RICS commercial property survey suggests a recovery is on its way with improvements in both the occupier and investment market headline balances and the majority of respondents believing the...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read