Capital Daily Earnings results could trump the Fed The market reaction to news around US-Asia trade is yet another reminder of how crucial the AI narrative is for the stock market and, accordingly, how significant big tech earnings results today and... 29th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts but thinks it has done enough With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut widely anticipated, the key development today was the signal that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2025) With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut today widely anticipated, the key development was that it signalled that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update The Treasury forces the Fed's hand on QT If the Fed does decide to call time on its quantitative tightening (QT) this week it will be responding to the Treasury’s efforts to rebuild its cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised this... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 2025) The slight decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in October leaves it at its lowest since “Liberation Day” and will help assure the Fed that another interest rate cut tomorrow is... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Aug 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in August follows five months of flat or falling prices. We are predicting that a modest pick-up in demand paired with nagging undersupply will support prices in the... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Au’ revoir, gold We doubt the recent pull-back in the price of gold will be unwound. Indeed, our new forecast is that the price will fall to $3,500/oz. by the end of 2026. 27th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Strong AI-related business investment and resilient consumer spending means we now expect growth to average near-3% in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited... 27th October 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q3 2025: Same old, same old Capital values were broadly flat in Q3 and total returns reached 1.2% q/q, unchanged from Q2. While the main sector ranking is consistent with our views – retail and residential leading, office and... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Blowing the full-time whistle on the gold rally The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages. So unlike some analysts, we are revising our forecasts lower and now expect prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade talks termination emblematic of trade woes President Trump’s termination of trade talks won’t make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Record shutdown would still have little impact The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring inflation and rate cut expectations While delayed US inflation data for September have seemingly made a Fed rate cut next week all but certain, we still think the growth and inflation backdrop are consistent with the Fed cutting rates... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US S&P Global PMIs (Oct) The rebound in the S&P Global composite PMI to a 3-month high of 54.8 in October, from 53.9, puts it at a level that has historically been consistent with GDP growth of around 3% annualised. The... 24th October 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep 2025) The downside surprise to core CPI prices in September should make the Fed feel even more comfortable with its likely decision to cut interest rates next week, and presents a risk to our view that the... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities Canaries in the coalmine or a storm in a teacup? We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
