US Economics Update

Residual seasonality something to note, not fear

Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Flagging previous climate risk notes

In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US.

14th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

October meeting will be a close call

The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak

The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct. 2024)

The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2024)

The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Sep)

Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences

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There’s less than a month to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.

Event

Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences

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There’s just two weeks to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.

Asset Allocation Update

Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble

A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a...

11th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Capital Daily

CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields

The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

Bonds Update

Assessing the risks to Treasuries

The bond market sell-off over recent weeks has taken the 10-year Treasury yield to around our long-held end-2024 forecast of 4.00%. Although significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read