Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US defence talks, Egypt-IMF deal, Morocco 2026 Budget The US and Saudi Arabia have stepped up security talks ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month. A full defence pact is unlikely to materialise, however, given... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2025) Lower borrowing costs were behind the pick-up in existing home sales last month. As we expect less policy easing next year than markets are currently pricing in, however, mortgage rates should... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid rebound in retail sales in August will not do much to spare the economy from a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter given the similar-sized fall in sales expected in... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Why the Bank of Canada will cut rates again…and again and again 29th October 2025, 4:00PM GMT Our North America team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada decision to unpack the Bank’s latest communications and baseline forecasts.
US Commercial Property Update Self-storage valuations look most stretched of all main sectors Self-storage cap rates are roughly on par with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is well short of the 200bps spread seen over the last 10 years. Coupled with an uninspiring outlook for rent growth... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What’s next for US small caps? US small caps have outperformed the average US large-cap one over the past six months or so, but we doubt that will continue. 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Dearth of official data won’t stop Fed from cutting The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for another 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The threat of broader... 22nd October 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada set to cut again Recent dovish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem suggest that, although the whole Governing Council may not be fully on board, the Bank is still likely to cut interest rates next week. 22nd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US private credit “bubble” The US equity market has recovered its poise over the past couple of days after recent jitters around the regional banking sector, but the concerns around credit losses may linger. Even if... 21st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is private credit a systemic threat to the economy? The collapse of auto parts supplier First Brands may have triggered losses at US regional banks, but we don’t think private credit represents a threat to the stability of the broader US financial... 21st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The modest upside surprise to CPI inflation in September was largely due to higher food prices and a rebound in travel-related prices, rather than broad-based gains. Nonetheless, with September’s... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show trade uncertainty still the main drag The main theme running through the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly business and consumer surveys is uncertainty, with CUSMA renegotiations on the horizon. This supports our view that exports and... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook 30th October 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our senior economists hosted this 20-minute session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting.
US Housing Market Outlook Boost from lower mortgage rates to be short-lived While slightly lower borrowing costs have boosted the near-term outlook, the decline has not been large enough to meaningfully improve housing affordability. In addition, we believe that market... 20th October 2025 · 11 mins read
