US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Jul 2025) The fall in home purchase mortgage applications in July still leaves them roughly in line with where they started the year, and continuing to point to a rebound in existing home sales. While some... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Get used to weaker payrolls growth The July Employment Report was a taste of what is to come, with payroll gains set to be much weaker in the coming quarters than has been the case in recent years. This is the new normal amid the... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bonds aren’t swaying growth’s relentless march over value We don’t expect the relentless march of ‘growth’ over ‘value’ in the S&P 500 to end soon, regardless of what happens to ‘risk-free’ real Treasuries. 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit was mainly due to a normalisation in pharmaceutical imports and while exports appeared weak, this was primarily due to a fall in gold exports. The big picture is... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2025) The small deterioration in Canada’s goods trade balance in June was driven by a large one-off import of a module for an offshore oil project in Newfoundland. The deterioration may have reversed in... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls history repeat & market fallout Financial markets have stabilised after Friday’s US payrolls shock and, unlike this time last year, there are few signs that large swings in government bond and currency markets are leading to a... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still navigating uncertain terrain While the Bank of Canada maintained the same rationale for holding rates steady in July as it did in June, our initial reaction to the meeting’s communications was that the tone had shifted... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July paints a slightly bleaker picture of the sector than is the reality. The rise in the production and new orders sub-indices, along with the fall in the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2025) The weak 73,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, combined with large downward revisions to May and June’s gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, will strengthen the case for those on... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q2 US RICS survey shows investment demand dented by uncertainty While occupier market trends were mixed, the Q2 RICS survey showed a distinct downturn in investment market sentiment, with investment enquiries – and particularly those from abroad – well down from... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the FOMC’s hawkish surprise Judging by yesterday’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference remarks, the FOMC doesn’t look to be in a hurry to change its policy stance. That points to somewhat higher Treasury... 31st July 2025 · 4 mins read
