US Economics Weekly Will Trump be good or bad for the economy? The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2024) The rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, despite uncertainty ahead of the US election, shows that economic developments remain the key driver of confidence in the aggregate... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024) The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher... 7th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Productivity & ULC (Q3) The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29 COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The curious case of negative Texan natural gas prices Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic. 6th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 24) Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back activity... 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024) Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
