Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug.) The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Sep 2024) & ECI (Q3 2024) The news on prices was mixed, with the September data showing that the core PCE deflator increased at a slightly faster 0.25% m/m (or 3.0% in 1m annualised terms) and, in part due to some modest... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q3) Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on markets & the US election With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS continues to show a normalising labour market Despite the sharp fall in job openings, September’s JOLTS data show a labour market normalising rather than rapidly deteriorating. With October’s payrolls gain likely to have been hampered by... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024) A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to... 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect both US stocks and bonds to rally before long Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But we doubt that pattern... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less... 28th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What comes after the carbon tax is axed? New Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to effectively eliminate Canada’s consumer-facing carbon tax will shave around 0.7% from headline CPI for the next year, which could offset some of the... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency? If Donald Trump wins the election, we think there are a few policy areas where Elon Musk, who has become one of the campaign's biggest supporters, would try to influence Trump. 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New immigration targets a headache for the Bank Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to... 25th October 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep. 2024) While the fall in durable goods orders in September was mostly due to the volatile transportation components, the decline in underlying capital goods shipments will still drag on business equipment... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The increase in retail sales in August and flash estimate for another rise in September poses an upside risk to the Bank of Canada’s forecast of household consumption in the third quarter. If realised... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
