Global Markets Update

Is the equity market really back to square one?

While the S&P 500 is now nearly back to its all-time high in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole, underlying risk premia are still somewhat larger than before the July...

27th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Durable Goods (Jul.)

The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Powell opens the door to further dollar weakness

The dovish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and the minutes of the FOMC Meeting in July released on Wednesday have left the greenback lower against all G10 currencies this week. This...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

25bp or 50bp?

The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut

The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024)

Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: Why retail should be back on investors' radars

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After six consecutive years of underperformance, retail outperformed the all-property average in 2023.

Capital Daily

Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar

Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now...

22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Markets Focus

Can US credit spreads really stay this low?

US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the...

22nd August 2024 · 13 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Minutes (July 30-31)

The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024)

The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read