Capital Daily

What to make of US households’ appetite for equities

US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Struggling dollar may be due a break

The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle

The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep. 2024)

Despite the small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September, consumer confidence remains in a slump. At face value, weak sentiment points to softer consumer spending...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates

The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a.

There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to...

12th September 2024 · 21 mins read

Asset Allocation Focus

Rate cuts and asset returns

This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury...

12th September 2024 · 18 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Aug)

The August PPI data provide more encouragement for the Fed that inflation has been tamed. Together the CPI and PPI data point to a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the core PCE deflator last month, with...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain?

There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than...

11th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Equities still at the mercy of inflation

The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than...

11th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Fed Watch

Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut

With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC...

11th September 2024 · 9 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease in the first half of the year. With the spring selling season now over, though, and...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Aug)

The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in August appears to be consistent with a slightly below-target 0.15% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. But we doubt that modest...

11th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets

Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We think the post-payroll market jitters are overdone

Although today’s news about the US labour market disappointed investors, we think it is in line with higher Treasury yields and a rebound in US stocks.

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read