Canada Economics Update

Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another?

The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024)

The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports

Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are we underestimating the capital value recovery?

The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting...

22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off

The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long...

22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment

Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches

With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Apartment performance to top consensus estimates

Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the...

21st October 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

The election and the dollar

The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Are markets starting to price in a Trump win?

With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Bonds Update

Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet

Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut

A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week.

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Activity data hold up despite disruptions

The data this week confirmed that retail sales rose strongly in September and industrial production suffered only modestly from hurricane and strike disruption, with our third-quarter GDP growth...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read