Capital Daily Tech share meltdown, end of the shutdown? Jitters around US tech stocks reinforce the extent to which the market has become reliant on continued AI optimism. We see little on the fundamentals, though, that points to an imminent bursting of... 10th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tariffs on thin ice The Supreme Court justices appeared sceptical this week that President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs was legal. If the Court rules against Trump invoking... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2025) Government shutdown weighing on households’ mood The further decline in the already weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment measure to a three-year low of 50.3 in November confirms that the... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of investors’ indifference to the dearth of US data Here we are 38 days into a US government shutdown that most had thought would be over by now. And yet there is little sign that investors care. 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget plays fast and loose with fiscal truths A deeper dive into the budget reveals a dearth of new investment, toothless spending cuts and an overreliance on private capital. We therefore still expect the Bank of Canada to be forced to cut its... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2025) The surprise boost to employment and fall in the unemployment rate in October reinforces the Bank of Canada’s view that it should now sit on the sidelines and await more clarify on the impact of... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Why is hiring soft despite resilient GDP growth? Lower immigration, increased use of AI and cyclical weakness outside of the main tech sectors are the key reasons for the slowdown in private sector hiring this year. There is a risk that the drags... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs under threat: what it might mean for markets The abolition of tariffs justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act would be bad news for Treasuries, and perhaps not as good for the US dollar and stock market as it might seem. 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Waning enthusiasm for AI would weigh on Asian stock markets If today’s respite in stock markets doesn’t last, some tech-heavy ones in Asia would be particularly vulnerable to a deeper AI-related pull-back judging by their performance overnight. 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Oct. 2025) The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Oct 2025) Mortgage activity dropped back this month as further declines in borrowing costs, which had boosted mortgage activity in August and September, were minimal. While the ongoing government closure... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget big but not “generational” The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reliance on tech is a double-edged sword The S&P 500’s reliance on big-tech sectors to drive returns is clearly problematic when sentiment towards those sectors sours, as has happened today. But we think this reliance will ultimately... 4th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2025) The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
