Capital Daily What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that... 22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “ with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (June 2025) The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Where do markets stand ahead of Jackson Hole? US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in... 21st August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2025) Despite a small uptick in July, home sales have held in a narrow 3.9-4.1 million annualised range since mid-2023, a historically weak level that highlights the lack of momentum in the struggling... 21st August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (July 29-30) The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Is rising FHA loan distress a canary in the coalmine? Rising delinquency rates among typically lower-income FHA borrowers hint at stress in riskier segments of the residential mortgage market. But since most FHA borrowers remain in decent financial shape... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery demand powers China’s green exports Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Low volatility in Treasuries isn’t necessarily a worrying sign One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) Valuation scores held steady in Q2 and continue to suggest the sector is a little overvalued. This underpins our view that values still need further falls to support a stronger pickup in investment... 19th August 2025 · 0 mins read
