Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 2025 and Sep) The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying contraction in domestic demand. The declines in household consumption... 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty over next Fed Chair clouds rate outlook The outlook for fed policy next year will depend not only on the economic outlook, but also whether a new Trump-appointed Fed Chair, from May, can convince his colleagues that rates should be cut... 26th November 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Sep 2025) September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. 26th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500 valuation breadth gives cause for optimism While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates... 26th November 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More to this rebound than rate cut expectations Falling real yields have supported a broad rally in the US stock market today. But the larger gains yesterday owed little to rate expectations, highlighting that falling yields are not needed for... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth... 25th November 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update Why a hawkish Fed may be good news for stocks Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Sep 2025) The 0.1% m/m rise in house prices in September matched August’s modest gain, and points to a tentative house price recovery from here. We are predicting that a pick-up in demand paired with nagging... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2025) The PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator were, on balance, slightly hotter than we had initially anticipated, leading us to estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.25% m/m in September. 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep 2025) The slightly softer-than-expected retail sales data for September won’t be enough to spoil the third quarter, with our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth still 3.6% annualised. But, together with... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Fed December meeting – A tight call and the 2026 policy outlook 10th December 2025, 9:00PM GMT Our economists were online on Wednesday 10th December, shortly after the statement and the Powell press conference, to deliver their take on the decision and the latest communications.
Capital Daily What to make of the AI and fiscal concerns roiling markets Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK... 24th November 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed Dec rate cut decision going down to the wire The minutes of the October FOMC meeting were unusually blunt, warning that “many” Fed participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, the... 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data lends credence to need for more easing A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent slide in the stock market Our base case is that the bubble in AI hasn’t burst: we still think it has another year or so to inflate. But given Thursday’s pullback in equities, it isn’t out of the question that it is starting to... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
