Equities Update What next for the S&P 500 after another all-time high? All-time highs in the S&P 500 and years of strong gains don’t mean the index is set to run out of steam. Rather than the level or momentum of the market, history suggests that returns from here will... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 PREA consensus forecasts predict a steady recovery for US CRE The latest PREA consensus forecasts showed a minor downgrade in the all-property forecast, both for the next two years and the 2025-29 average. That was driven by downgrades in the residential, senior... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More to the S&P 500’s strength than the prospect of easier money While the prospect of looser Fed policy has helped to drive the S&P 500 to new highs in recent months, there is another reason the index has surged. This isn’t an increase in its valuation compared to... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2025) The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still likely to rebound from latest payrolls setback Another soft non-farm payrolls report has put the dollar on the backfoot again, but given the extent of Fed easing already discounted we continue to think the greenback will remain rangebound over the... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls barely dent market optimism Another weak US Employment Report has knocked risk appetite, but a lot of optimism is still baked in. While that raises the prospect of a more serious blow to markets should economic data sour, our... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The judiciary strikes back The conventional wisdom is that President Trump has pushed well beyond the established bounds on executive power in his second term. In a number of areas, including tariffs, deportations, the use of... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2025) The second consecutive large fall in employment together with the renewed rise in the unemployment rate underscore that conditions in the labour market remain bleak amid the impact of US tariffs. The... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug. 2025) While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% will curb... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Dallas and Memphis out in front for warehouse rent prospects Our refreshed analysis of the 34 largest US warehousing markets puts Dallas and Memphis in a close-fought battle for the top. Kansas City and Phoenix have risen up our rankings since last year, while... 4th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily In the S&P 500 we antitrust Yesterday’s rise in the S&P 500 was fuelled by the shares of two of its largest firms after a favourable antitrust ruling. Although this masked a decline in the average stock in the index, we don’t... 4th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug. 2025) The solid rise in the ISM services index in August matches the generally positive mood around the economy’s growth prospects in the third quarter. The tick down in the prices paid index is a relief... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2025) The rebound in exports in July was broad-based but, with the export order indicators still weak, we suspect it reflects more of an inevitable rebound from recent weakness rather than the start of a... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
