Capital Daily How rising JGB yields could be a threat to Treasuries The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Are US stocks really worth a higher valuation than the rest? The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US... 28th August 2025 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Poor recovery in home sales to weigh on self-storage rents The slow recovery we expect in home sales over the coming years will be a key factor limiting self-storage demand from returning to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, even though completions will... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How worrying would AI fatigue be for the rest of the S&P 500? We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Immigrant crackdown to limit employment rebound We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased by a modest 90,000 in August, as immigration curbs limit labour supply. We expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 4.2%, while average... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariff rate appears manageable Estimates from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) suggest that Canadian exporters faced an average tariff rate of just 2.5% in June. Even if that figure understates the bill, as we suspect... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP Q2 (2nd Est) Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% annualised, from 3.0%, for all the right reasons. Growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers was revised up more significantly, to 1.9% from... 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Do the best things now come in small packages? Falling short-dated Treasury yields seem to have sparked a rotation within the US stock market in recent weeks. But we doubt this rotation will persist, given our view that Treasury yields will not... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The struggling housing market is unlikely to benefit from the Fed rate cuts we have built into our outlook (four 25bp cuts through mid-2026). These cuts are already been priced in by markets, while... 27th August 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Counter-tariff shift makes life easier for the Bank The unilateral reduction in tariffs by Ottawa in the US-Canada trade war raises the likelihood of the Bank of Canada resuming its easing cycle next month given that, with US tariffs unchanged, the... 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Will Trump capture the FOMC? President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook looks set to go the courts, which will determine the extent and limits of the administration’s ability to influence monetary policy. It remains... 26th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2025) Although we expect house prices to regain some momentum in the third quarter, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in June suggests that risks to our forecast of a 1% increase this year are clearly... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (July 2025) July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and the latest threat to Fed independence Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) All-property capital values rose modestly by 0.1% in Q2, suggesting a market floor, with cap rates falling by 5 bps. However, we expect values to see limited upside due to the narrow spread to risk... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dovish Powell & pushy Trump halt the dollar’s rebound The dollar has given back most of its gains from earlier in the week after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That leaves the... 22nd August 2025 · 3 mins read
