US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales indicate that consumers are not pulling back despite the labour market cooling. 16th September 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Core goods prices fell in August for the first time this year, which supports our view that the upside risks to inflation have eased considerably in recent months. That suggests the Bank of Canada... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equity allocation starting to flash red for the US stock market The share of equities in the financial assets of US households and nonprofit institutions serving them (NPISH) hit its highest level in at least 75 years in the second quarter of this year. That... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2025) The increases in manufacturing and wholesale sales in July suggest tentative signs of a recovery in two of the sectors hardest hit by US tariffs. Less encouragingly, new orders fell by 2.2%, while the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC likely to bring some relief for struggling greenback The dollar has weakened a little further this week after US inflation and jobs data again came out on the soft side. This probably cements a 25bp rate cut next week’s FOMC meeting. But we continue to... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Sep.) Consumer sentiment fell back to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, from 58.2, as fears over both higher inflation and labour market weakness weighed on households. That leaves the University of... 12th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts Officials indicated in July that they could support further interest rate cuts if the labour market continued to soften. That is exactly what has happened since, while the upside risks to inflation... 10th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines Easing labour market conditions mean the FOMC is set to vote for a 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, although a rare triple dissent in favour of a... 10th September 2025 · 9 mins read
