Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Nov) Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Bonds Focus What to make of shrinking IG credit spreads Despite being around multi-decade lows, we think credit spreads of US investment-grade corporate bonds could fall further still over the next year or so. 12th December 2024 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to revert to 25bp cuts Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close... 11th December 2024 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov) The 0.31% m/m increase in core CPI in November, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3% for a fourth month in a row and pushed the three-month annualised rate up to an eight-month... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental growth to pick-up as apartment supply drops off The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall? While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night? A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
