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Four likely winners in retail

The retail sector appears to be turning a corner, and we think that convenience-oriented Neighbourhood and Community (N&C) centres, out-of-town retail, “destination”-type malls and retail located in “desirable” southern metros are likely to be the sector’s winners over the next few years.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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Commercial Property Lending (Apr.)

Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few months. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

16 May 2022

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Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever

Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South means that, even if that migration persists, we do not think that rents in those markets will necessarily outperform. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

12 May 2022

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Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports

Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we expect that to be only a temporary switch, a view backed up by recent data. And the return of container ships to the West Coast will drive a resurgence in demand for its industrial markets. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

11 May 2022

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US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Aug.)

Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality employment remains below its pre-virus level in all metros, while office-based jobs have recovered their shortfall in 14.

29 September 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Aug.)

Net lending to property decreased for the third consecutive month in August, driven by falls in both lending for standing investment and development. Looking ahead, we think that tight credit conditions and the slow recovery in investment will weigh on lending to commercial property this year.

29 September 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner

Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a dwindling supply pipeline to limit rental declines over the next few years more so than in the other major metros.

17 September 2021
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