The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging shoppers from visiting physical stores. But we doubt this is a sign of a renewed downturn in retail activity. As inflation falls further, rising real household disposable incomes should boost retail activity throughout the rest of this year.
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