UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul. 2026) July’s flash PMI figures show that the stagflationary pressures faced by the Bank of England continued to soften. But the recent rebound in energy prices suggests that all of these trends may not last... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June is unlikely to last long. The lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift inflation above 3.0% in September... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026) June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Jun. 2026) The Bank of England’s pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” by hiking interest rates, alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US-Iran deal... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2026) Signs that the labour market may be starting to stabilise makes us a bit less confident in our view that second-round effects won’t prevent inflation returning to 2.0% next year. We still think the... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2026) CPI inflation will still rise over the next six to nine months despite it holding steady at 2.8% in May. But the fall in the oil price ahead of a US-Iran deal means it’s becoming more likely that... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2026) April’s 0.1% m/m contraction in real GDP showed the strong start to the year is now faltering. After growing by 0.6% q/q in Q1, we expect GDP to come to a standstill this quarter and next as the hit... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2026) April’s money and lending data suggest that households are responding to the war in Iran by saving a bit less, borrowing just as much and almost carrying on regardless when it comes to housing. Even... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr. 2026) The drop in retail sales volumes and the public borrowing overshoot in April highlights the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street. 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
