UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) December’s unexpected rise in retail sales volumes wasn’t enough to prevent yet another disappointing “Golden Quarter” for the retail sector, with sales declining by 0.3% q/q in Q4 overall. And while... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2025) The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow and Starmer/Reeves’ political vulnerability casts doubt over whether... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December makes it unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% on 5th February. But we still think that a fall in... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2025) While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.50% at the next policy... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2025) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.1% m/m) suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a bit more momentum than we thought. But with the economy still... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025) November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more. 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Dec. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The further big fall in CPI inflation, from 3.6% in October to 3.2% in November, will surely be enough to prompt the Governor of the Bank of England to reach into his big bag tomorrow and give... 17th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2025) Despite the continued cooling in the jobs market, total wage growth continues to ease only fairly gradually. But the Bank of England will take comfort from the more significant continued easing in its... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2025) With the economy still contending with the drags from high interest rates, higher taxes and weak overseas demand, the surprise 0.1% m/m contraction in the economy in October (consensus forecast +0.1%... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2025) October’s money and lending figures suggest nervousness about forthcoming tax rises in the Budget on 26th November prompted households to become a bit more cautious with their borrowing and saving. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
