UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (6th Feb 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Dec. 2024) December’s money and lending figures suggest the downbeat economic outlook isn’t weighing on households borrowing and spending decisions too heavily. This provides some encouragement that the economy... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2024) Against a backdrop of slowing GDP growth and high interest rates, December’s overshoot in borrowing is further disappointing news for the Chancellor. That said, most of the overshoot was because of a... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov. 2024) While the further rise in regular private sector pay growth in November will cause the Bank of England some unease, it will take comfort from the continued loosening in labour market activity. We... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) December’s 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.4% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) and rounded off a disappointing Q4, with sales declining by 0.8% q/q in Q4 overall... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2024) While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2024) November’s money and lending data suggests that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving ahead of the Budget hasn’t gone away. As a result, today’s release adds further downside risk to our... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2024 2nd Estimate) The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% isn’t quite as bad as it looks and leaves scope for a lively debate with the family over the festive period about whether or not the economy is... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to decline in Q4 overall. And although that will bring little... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2024) Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But the weakening in the economy and recent rises in market interest rates suggests the government... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Dec. 2024) While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) Coming on the back of the stronger-than-expected rise in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the further rebound in CPI inflation published today means there is almost no chance of the Bank of England... 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct. 2024) The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a resurgence in inflation despite the weak news on activity. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024) Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read