UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2026) April’s 0.1% m/m contraction in real GDP showed the strong start to the year is now faltering. After growing by 0.6% q/q in Q1, we expect GDP to come to a standstill this quarter and next as the hit... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2026) April’s money and lending data suggest that households are responding to the war in Iran by saving a bit less, borrowing just as much and almost carrying on regardless when it comes to housing. Even... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr. 2026) The drop in retail sales volumes and the public borrowing overshoot in April highlights the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street. 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The drop in CPI inflation from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April (consensus and CE forecast 3.0%) feels like the lull before the storm and tells us very little about the persistence of the surge in... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2026) The sharp weakening in the labour market in April may help to restrain the recent upward march in gilt yields by highlighting that, so far at least, the Iran war is prompting businesses to reduce... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2026) March’s money and lending figures imply households may be willing to absorb some of the blow to their real incomes caused by the leap in energy prices by borrowing more and saving a smaller share of... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Apr. 2026) The Bank of England’s hawkish tilt around its decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to around $95pb as we expect... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2026) March’s figures showed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing in 2025/26. But we do not expect this improvement to last long. We think the energy price shock will mean... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb./Mar. 2026) While the fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests the labour market was stabilising around the turn of the year, the decline in payroll employment in March suggests that the rise in energy... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2025 Final) The confirmation that real GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q4 of last year is a reminder that the economic backdrop is much weaker now than the last time energy prices surged in 2022. 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
