UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2025) Despite the overshoot in May, public borrowing was £2.9bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast in the first two months of the fiscal year. That said, the OBR may still revise up its... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Jun. 2025) The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2025) The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued during the rest of the year. This won’t prompt the Bank of... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Although for the first time since 2015, excluding the pandemic, retail sales volumes have risen for four months in a row, April’s impressive 1.2% m/m rise was largely driven by the unusually warm... 23rd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2025) April’s public finances figures showed that despite the boost from the rise in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs), the fiscal year got off to a poor start. This raises the chances that... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more of the recent rises in taxes than we thought... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2025) The bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated as a lot of it was due to a leap in business investment that looks out of whack with the plunge in business confidence and some of it... 15th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Announcement (8th May 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% today, the Bank of England poured some cold water on the markets’ expectations that it is going to speed up the pace of rate cuts. As it happens, we no... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025) March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
