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Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns

The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It could also push OPEC+ to consider further voluntary oil output cuts . Elsewhere, the IMF suggested the approval of Tunisia’s $1.9bn deal is edging closer, but President Saied’s anti-IMF stance and lack of appetite to pass necessary reforms does not bode well. And in Egypt, fears of a sovereign default are growing. For now at least, there is a path out of its public debt problems – but that path is narrowing.

EM Drop-In (4th May): We’re holding a special 20-minute online briefing all about EM debt risks this Thursday at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST. Register now.

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