Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour

Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to prop up the pound until the vote – although we still expect a devaluation afterwards. Meanwhile, the UAE’s aggressive plans to raise oil output to 5mn bpd by 2027 could create tensions within OPEC+ given the group’s continued cautious approach to oil policy. Finally, we published a Focus taking a closer look at Saudi Arabia’s improving labour market and the impact of social reforms, in particular how rising female labour force participation is changing the shape of the workforce.