India Economics

India Chart Book

20 March, 2019

Rupee rally unlikely to last

The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related in part to recent opinion polls showing that the ruling BJP is on course to win the general election which starts in April. Looking ahead however, we doubt that the rally in rupee has much further to run. For a start, concerns about the independence of the Reserve Bank have by no means been put to bed

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