Capital Daily How we see AI playing out in stock markets We think that investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) will grow again next year and inflate a bubble in stock markets. This is just one of the many consequences that AI will have on the... 26th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for US and UK markets We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Oil likely to remain a sideshow for financial markets The recent rally in oil prices has had only a limited impact on bond and equity markets so far. And we doubt that this will change anytime soon, given our view that the rally will not last much longer... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily On the dwindling influence of TIPS on other assets The latest increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~2% at one point last week, has barely caused a ripple in the markets. More generally, the influence of “safe”... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities may be ready to outperform the US We expect China’s equities to fare better than those in the US in the near term. 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What further disinflation may mean for US equities Although today’s August CPI report was broadly in line with expectations, it provided further evidence that underlying inflation in the US is coming down even as the economy there weathers the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus Soft landings, immaculate disinflation, and US equities A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. 7th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US stock market patterns and the economic outlook Recent patterns in the US stock market are sending mixed signals about the extent to which investors are braced for an economic downturn. Our own view is that equities will struggle to make more... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s equities may step down from the spotlight soon We doubt the strong gains in Japan’s equity market this year mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag the US market over the next couple of... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another false dawn for China’s markets? New measures to support China’s struggling property sector seem to have sparked some renewed optimism in the country’s financial markets. We think there are three points to note. 4th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
