Global Markets Update We doubt the recent rally marks a new dawn for Japan’s equities We don’t think that the recent strong gains in Japan’s equity market mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag other markets over the rest of... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Book Odds look stacked against risky assets Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think... 1st June 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Markets Chart Book Rates to stay higher for longer to quash inflation Growing evidence that UK price pressures are becoming increasingly domestically generated has driven up market interest rate expectations and at one point pushed the 10-year gilt yield up to 4.38% in... 1st June 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily More cause for concern in macro than market corporate earnings While a relatively upbeat Q1 earnings season helped to assuage concerns that the US economy is heading for a recession, last week’s macroeconomic profit data painted a less rosy picture. 31st May 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Book US equity rally may be on shaky foundations Recent gains in the US stock market have been unusually narrow, and we don’t think the conditions are yet in place for a broad-based rally. 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Latest signs of optimism in Turkey’s markets may not last A sense that President Erdogan might shift towards orthodox policymaking seems to be soothing Turkey’s financial markets, but we doubt this optimism will last long. And we think the Turkish lira will... 30th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has corporate Japan cleaned up its act? Many commentators have pinned the recent outperformance of Japan’s stock market on the stronger focus by Japanese firms to maximise shareholder value. But while those efforts showed some success in... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Upside for US equities probably limited in debt ceiling resolution We expect any resolution to the debt ceiling crisis to provide only a modest boost to “risky” assets such as equities, given how well they have held up thus far in anticipation of a deal being struck... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East Chart Book Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1685628000 During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance again
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Economy taking a back seat for the US stock market for now The recent performance of sectors within the S&P 500 is hard to square with either the economic outlook or TIPS yields. We suspect it reflects shifts in sentiment around the tech sector, which may... 22nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for EM equities Emerging market equities have typically outperformed their developed market counterparts after US recessions. While we don’t foresee them replicating the sort of outperformance seen after the early... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How equities might fare as tightening cycles end Although monetary tightening has been a drag on equities over the past year or so, we don’t think the end of rate hikes means the stock market is set for big gains. 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Debt ceiling debacle threatens renewed turmoil While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries... 18th May 2023 · 10 mins read
