Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think big-tech stocks will return to the top We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus We doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equities We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Trump & ESG markets We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric... 25th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Big-tech results and rotation Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have... 24th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US banks may rally further We think there are a number of factors supporting the recent rally in US bank shares, not just the rotation out of tech stocks. So, while we doubt this rotation is here to stay, we think bank stocks... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing two threats to Japan’s stock market We expect Japan’s stock market to continue to struggle in yen terms, but to fare better in US dollar terms over the rest of the year. 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB overshadowed by French politics Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Four points on rotation A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks... 17th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus A fresh look at EM equities This Asset Allocation Focus takes a fresh look at emerging market (EM) equities. Section 1 sets the stage, by briefly reviewing their performance over the past decade. Sections 2, 3 & 4 explore their... 16th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have continued to rise, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the inflation of a bubble in stock markets, itself a... 12th July 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Could the economy burst this bubble? Another fairly encouraging US CPI report seems unlikely to blow the buoyant S&P 500 far off course given the implications for Fed policy. Indeed, it strengthens the case for a rate cut in September. 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read