Canada Chart Book

Construction the next shoe to drop

The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000...

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q3)

GDP growth in Nigeria slowed to 2.2% y/y in Q3 as woes in the oil sector intensified and key parts of the non-oil economy, such as agriculture and manufacturing, performed poorly. Even with pre...

Euro-zone Data Response

German Ifo Survey (Nov.)

The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4.

Euro-zone Rapid Response

German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November)

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022)

November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in...

Japan Economics Rapid Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 22)

US Economics Weekly

Recession odds rising

Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising.

Latin America Economics Update

Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am

With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also...

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

EM inflation has passed the peak

Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in...

UK Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.)

While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However...

Middle East Chart Book

North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains

Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month...

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases...

UK Economics Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.)