Global Economics Update

Downturn in global trade set to deepen further

Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect...

India Economics Update

Oil price rise not a major threat to external position

The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in the four quarters to Q2 was mainly due to the shrinking of the goods trade deficit. Looking ahead, the recent jump in oil prices won’t prevent the...

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow

Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and...

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy...

Middle East Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23)

After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to...

Europe Economic Outlook

ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy

We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain...

Canada Economic Outlook

Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates

We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to...

Middle East Economic Outlook

Growth prospects for 2024 improving

After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to...

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2023)

Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although EM growth held up well in H1, growth will disappoint over the coming quarters...

China Economics Weekly

Foreigners staying away, consumers perking up

When officials launched the “Invest in China” campaign in March, they had hoped 2023 would be the year in which foreign investment came roaring back, supported by the removal of COVID restrictions...

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Downturn will prompt policy easing next year

Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets...

Middle East Economics Weekly

Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF

Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is...

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating...

Japan Economics Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (Aug. 2023)

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation

The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our...