Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update UK-US trade deal is not a big deal The UK-US trade deal announced by President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer today won’t make a big difference to the UK economy as a whole, although it is more significant for certain sectors such as... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM trade is performing well, but surveys look worrying The trade data available for March and April suggest that a large number of EMs have benefitted from a front-running of tariffs in recent months, particularly those across Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam and... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: widening current account deficit leaves real at risk Brazil’s current account deficit has widened sharply over the past twelve months and we think it could reach 4.0-4.5% of GDP over the next couple of years. This leaves the real vulnerable to renewed... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs affecting sentiment more than activity so far Q1 GDP data showed that most of the world’s economies were still growing at a decent pace ahead of the main tariff hikes and several were boosted by front-running. Consumer and business confidence... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam seems to be riding the tariff wave again Early signs are that Vietnam is doing well as US buyers look to find alternative suppliers outside China. 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar 2025) The widening in the trade deficit to a new record high in March was driven entirely by imports of pharmaceutical products as firms looked to front-run tariffs. This was broadly in-line with the BEA’s... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2025) The surprise improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March, despite the imposition of US tariffs, was thanks to a surge in exports to other countries. Nonetheless, as the survey indicators of... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the drama in Asian FX We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Exporters could fill some of China's void India looks relatively well-positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term. And India also stands out as likely to benefit over the long term – the... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update China’s export surge and what it means for Africa The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
