Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s high-stake election, BRL under pressure Comments from US President Trump this week suggest the financial support for Argentina will be contingent on Milei doing well in the mid-terms later this month. A strong showing for Milei's party... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Small fiscal loosening in the euro-zone next year Draft 2026 budget plans submitted to the European Commission this week point to a moderate loosening of fiscal policy next year. In practice we think that the degree of policy loosening will be... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade war flashpoints, PBOC holds renminbi steady The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions seems to have resulted in an impasse, with both sides looking to the other to initiate deescalation. For now, the Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC summit... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Spillovers from rising US-China tensions, BI and BoK to cut US–China tensions have flared up again, with Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports reinforcing the ongoing shift of US demand and production away from China. India’s position has been... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil import conundrum, RBI squeezes short-sellers President Trump's comments this week that Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia have been denied by India's Ministry Of External Affairs. The latest data show that Russia's... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) While the economy appears to be narrowly avoiding recession, we expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3%... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Focus CBAM – which economies could be hit hardest? The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) extends the EU’s carbon pricing mechanism to the rest of the world through what is essentially a ‘carbon tariff’. Many emerging markets have opposed... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s new export controls A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many, including us, had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia between a rock and a hard place A surge in olive oil exports and a rebound in tourist arrivals, alongside Gulf and EU financial support, have helped to stave off a balance of payments crisis in Tunisia. But with the dinar... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2025) Exports held up last month, with headline y/y growth rising to a six-month high and shipments also picking up on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this resilience underscores the ability of Chinese... 13th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A high-stakes game of chicken President Trump has threatened to hit back hard if China doesn’t back away from the trade restrictions it announced last week. This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail – a... 13th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada lacking both carrot and stick in US negotiations Prime Minister Mark Carney had less fortune in the US than the Blue Jays this week, returning with little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. The... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya-Angola fiscal worries, Cocoa Price, Uganda GDP Angola joined Kenya this week in tapping the dollar bond market, but both countries continue to face fiscal consolidation challenges, meaning sovereign default concerns will linger. Meanwhile, Côte d... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deals back in focus The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
