Emerging Asia Chart Book

Consumer resilience unlikely to last

Most countries in the region have now reported GDP figures for the third quarter, and growth was generally faster than we (and the consensus) had expected. One factor behind this resilience was the...

Global Trade Monitor

World trade stagnates as demand wanes

Trade is beginning to slow as the world heads into a recession. In real terms, world trade barely rose in September, and timelier data from Asian economies suggest outright falls are imminent. Falling...

Global Economics Update

Plunging shipping costs to weigh on inflation

Over a year ago, we warned that surging shipping costs posed an upside risk to inflation going into 2022, and it looks like these risks did indeed materialise. But now that global shipping costs have...

Latin America Economics Update

Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am

With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also...

Middle East Chart Book

North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains

Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month...

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs

Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging...

India Chart Book

Higher rates feeding through to real economy

The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases...

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy

Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising...

Middle East Economics Weekly

Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup

Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy...

Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Oct. 2022)

The trade deficit widened but stayed below the record high in August, but with the yen strengthening significantly in recent weeks, the deficit should narrow later this quarter.

Japan Economics Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (Oct. 2022)

Middle East Economics Update

Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa

Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to...

Global Economics Update

Baby steps at G20 as fracturing theme dominates

This week’s G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, has so far exceeded low expectations. There is broad condemnation of the war in Ukraine and bilateral talks between China and the US seem to have been...

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania’s current account risks continue to mount

Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being...