Asia Economics Update Trade negotiations to take centre stage for Asia Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens 14 countries with higher reciprocal tariffs President Donald Trump has now released “letters” to 14 countries today, announcing that, unless they negotiate a deal over the next few weeks, he will impose reciprocal tariffs on those countries... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens to resurrect 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st, if those countries can’t reach a... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for... 7th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs state of play – What we know and what to watch 1752048000 As the deadline for the implementation of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs is pushed back to August, this special briefing from our senior economist team will bring you the latest on the state of play for
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trade woes continue The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Vietnam trade agreement eases worst-case fears The newly agreed US–Vietnam trade agreement should help preserve Vietnam’s competitive edge in the region, but the overall impact will also depend on how other countries in Asia are treated. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China-US trade rerouting in Trump’s crosshairs Given its trade truce with the US, China isn’t at much risk of being hit with higher duties when the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs ends next week. But Trump’s trade deals with the UK and... 4th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan protests exacerbating default fear Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom... 3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deal or no deal, trade negotiations will continue Whatever transpires in EU-US trade talks next week – deal, no-deal or an extension – tensions over transatlantic trade relations are likely to persist throughout President Trump’s second... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
