We expect Bund yields to rise, but only gradually

Though we think that the recent decline in the 10-year Bund yield is an overreaction, we expect it to rise only a little over the next couple of years, and by less than yields in many other developed markets.
Franziska Palmas Markets Economist
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EM Markets Chart Book

We think China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z

While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove more persistent in the former than in the latter two.

17 September 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

17 September 2021

More from Franziska Palmas

Capital Daily

We still expect high US inflation to weigh on Treasuries

While the Treasury market shrugged off another stronger-than-expected CPI print today, we continue to expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise over the next few years, as high inflation proves more persistent than generally expected.

13 July 2021

Capital Daily

We don’t think the sell-off in risky assets will continue

While we think that the stellar performance of many “risky assets” over the past year will not be replicated over the next few, we also doubt today’s generalised sell-off will continue.

We are resending yesterday's Capital Daily as we are aware that some clients did not receive it via email.

8 July 2021

Global Markets Update

Earnings expectations and the outlook for DM equities

We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past year.

2 July 2021
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