The global implications of a slowdown in China

The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some industrial commodity producers, we do not think it will derail recoveries in the world’s major advanced economies.
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
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Global Economics Update

PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising

The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, with indicators of firms’ price pressures increasing again in September.

23 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande

If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s economy. The latter is probably the bigger risk for the global recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Service.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure

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21 September 2021

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Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs

The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies. However, the rapid spread of the Delta variant poses a more significant threat to recoveries in large parts of the emerging world, where vaccination rates are lower.

14 July 2021

Long Run Update

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While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global output over the long term. We disagree. And if we’re right, there will be profound consequences for everything from the future path of GDP to the outlook for inflation and the public finances.

21 May 2021

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Four questions (answers) on r/Wallstreetbets

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1 February 2021
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