Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs

The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their recent record highs, but that leaves them at historically high levels. Meanwhile, there were some early signs of economic fallout from the spread of the Delta variant.
Simon MacAdam Senior Global Economist
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Global Economics Update

PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising

The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, with indicators of firms’ price pressures increasing again in September.

23 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande

If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s economy. The latter is probably the bigger risk for the global recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Service.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure

In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer than we had previously assumed. Governments are already preparing to limit the economic damage and central banks are likely to look through this temporary spike in inflation. But this comes at a time when a host of shortages are already pushing up prices and adds to the upside risks to our inflation and interest rate forecasts.

21 September 2021

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Global Trade Monitor

Recovery in world trade continues, for now

April’s data revealed that world trade flows have enjoyed virtually interrupted growth for 12 months now, with world trade remaining well above its pre-virus level. But between the quintupling of shipping costs over the past year, supply disruptions, and a potential cooldown in the demand for traded goods as economies re-open, there is no shortage of impediments to a continued robust recovery.

25 June 2021

Global Economics Update

Reflationary recovery races on

Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods shortages and higher costs have held back the recovery in manufacturing output. More generally, the PMIs suggest that lockdown easing continues to propel recoveries in the US and Europe, where restrictions have eased.

23 June 2021

Global Economics Update

How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’?

Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around half of the jump in inflation in the US and UK over the past three months has reflected a ‘genuine’ pick-up in For the most part, base effects are unlikely to be a significant driver of inflation in the year ahead.

18 June 2021
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