Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory remains a high possibility and would increase the risk of a severe currency crisis. Meanwhile, the hawks at the Czech central bank were out in their numbers this week and the communications raise the chance of a rate hike in the coming months. We still think this is unlikely, but it's clear that policy will be kept tight until inflation falls to much lower levels. Elsewhere, Hungary's government passed key legislation this week to resolve its conflict with the EU over the rule of law. EU funds may be unlocked later this year, which would remove downside risks to growth and the forint.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services