The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not fall by that much. But we still expect a total decline of 23% from February to April, taking real monthly GDP to $1.5trn annualised, the lowest since 2006. There have at least been positive signs in the past month: Consumer confidence has stabilised, albeit still near a record-low level, while small business confidence has rebounded strongly. The Apple and Google mobility reports show the number of journeys taken has increased markedly since April, although so far most of those extra journeys seem to be to parks rather than shops or workplaces. In other words, those extra trips are unlikely to result in much of a rebound in GDP in May. We expect a 5% m/m rise, followed by a 10% rise in June, which would still result in a quarterly contraction of 45% annualised.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services