Australia & New Zealand

RBNZ will hike rates to 2.0% next year

While the RBNZ only hiked rates by 25bps at today’s meeting, it is set to continue lifting rates next year. However, we think a slowdown in the economy will end the Bank’s hiking cycle with the OCR at 2.0%.
Ben Udy Australia and New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Omicron could add to inflationary pressure

If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil prices would continue to weaken, but disruptions to transportation networks coupled with continued strength in goods demand would add to the upward pressure on goods prices. However, for now the activity data suggest that the economy is roaring to life after the recent lockdowns and we’re sticking to our above-consensus GDP forecast of 5% for next year.

3 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1 December 2021

More from Ben Udy

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen

RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage growth for other workers will begin to catch up next year. We therefore reiterate our view that wage growth will approach 3% by the end of next year and that the RBA will hike rates in 2023.

19 November 2021

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle

The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum sustainable level. We therefore expect the RBNZ to ramp up its hiking cycle with a 50bp hike at its meeting on 24th November. And we now expect the Bank to hike rates all the way to 2.0% by the middle of next year.

17 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q3 will provide the RBA with some confidence that rates need to remain low in the near term. But we think that wage growth will rise over 2022, putting pressure on the Bank.

17 November 2021
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